Will the gold close price be above 3391.99 USD/t.oz on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Gold price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 97% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 97% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that gold will close above $3,391.99 on July 31, 2026, yet recent headlines show gold trading far above that level—around $4,165 and even $5,200—so the real story is that the threshold is so low relative to current prices that the only plausible path to 'No' is an unprecedented crash in the next three weeks.
📊 Base rate: In the past decade, gold has experienced daily drops exceeding 5% only about 0.3% of trading days, making a collapse from current levels to below $3,391.99 extremely rare.
What's driving it
- • Gold was forecast to need a weekly close above $4,165 to sustain its recovery as of July 3, 2026 (FXStreet, Jul 3), implying the spot price is already well above the $3,391.99 threshold.
- • Earlier forecasts in February and March 2026 discussed gold needing to close above $5,200 and $4,165 respectively (FXStreet, Feb 27; FXStreet, Jul 3), showing the market has been trading at multiples of the resolution level.
- • A 5% drop after an Iran spike in March 2026 (FOREX.com, Mar 6) demonstrates that even sharp corrections still left gold far above $3,391.99, reinforcing the threshold's safety.
The case for YES
- • The current gold price is around $4,165 or higher based on recent forecasts (FXStreet, Jul 3), which is 23% above the $3,391.99 threshold, providing a massive cushion against any normal daily fluctuation.
- • Even a 5% intraday drop, as seen in March 2026 (FOREX.com, Mar 6), would only bring gold to roughly $3,957, still well above the resolution price.
- • No headline or data point suggests gold has traded near or below $3,391.99 in months, and the lowest recent reference is a monthly low in May 2026 (TradingView, May 4), which was still far above the threshold.
The case for NO
- • A black-swan geopolitical or economic event could trigger a flash crash exceeding 20% in a single day, as seen in historical gold selloffs like 2013 or 2020, which would be the only way to breach the threshold.
- • If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly announces a massive interest rate hike or dollar liquidity crisis on July 31, gold could plummet rapidly, though no such event is currently forecast.
- • The 1-minute candlestick close at 5:00 PM EDT is a very narrow window; a single erroneous trade or data glitch could theoretically print a low price, but this is extremely unlikely and not supported by any headline.
What to watch
- • Any surprise Federal Reserve announcement or US economic data release between now and July 31 that signals aggressive tightening could push gold down, but would need to be catastrophic to reach the threshold.
- • A sudden geopolitical de-escalation or dollar strength event could trigger a selloff, but the magnitude required makes this a low-probability catalyst for 'No'.
- • No scheduled events are likely to move the odds significantly given the extreme distance from the threshold.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3391.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
XRP Up or Down - Daily
Despite a series of bearish headlines highlighting an 80% drop in XRP Ledger payments and risks of a break below $1, the daily market has swung to 65% odds of an up day, gaining 4 points in 24 hours—suggesting traders are betting on a short-term bounce rather than the prevailing negative narrative.
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes
SUI Up or Down - Daily
The real story is that SUI's price is caught between a surge in network usage and a history of technical failures, with the odds slightly favoring an up day but far from certain.
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?
With no public headlines or recent events to cite, the 2% Yes / 98% No odds appear to reflect the extreme difficulty of a sumo wrestler staying undefeated for an entire calendar year, a feat rarely achieved in the sport's history.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA 6 releases?
This market pits a low-probability geopolitical event against an uncertain video game release, with odds heavily favoring No because China has not invaded Taiwan despite decades of rhetoric and any invasion would be a massive escalation unlikely before GTA 6's expected release within a few years.
Yes ≈ 8% chance