Will the gold close price be above 3591.99 USD/t.oz on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Gold price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 92% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 92% right now.
The market heavily favors Yes because the threshold of 3591.99 USD/t.oz is far below recent gold prices, which have consistently traded above $4,000, making a drop below that level by July 31 extremely unlikely without a major shock.
What's driving it
- • The most recent headline (FXStreet, Jul 3) indicates gold needs to close above $4,165 to sustain recovery, implying current prices are well above the 3591.99 threshold.
- • Earlier headlines from February through May (FXStreet, FOREX.com) show gold prices in the $4,000–$5,200 range, far above the resolution price.
- • No recent headlines suggest a sharp decline; the odds reflect the large gap between current trading levels and the target.
The case for YES
- • Gold has been trading significantly above the 3591.99 level for months, as seen in forecasts targeting $4,165 and above (FXStreet, Jul 3).
- • A drop of over 10% from current levels would be required to fall below 3591.99, an event not supported by recent economic data or headlines.
- • The 96% odds reflect near-certainty that the close price will remain above the threshold, given the absence of major bearish catalysts.
The case for NO
- • A sudden geopolitical or economic shock could trigger a sharp sell-off, as seen in the March 5% drop after an Iran spike (FOREX.com, Mar 6), though that still left gold above $4,000.
- • If gold were to break below key support levels, a cascade could push prices temporarily under 3591.99, but no headline hints at such a move.
- • The 5% No odds imply a very low probability, but tail risks such as a liquidity crisis or policy surprise cannot be completely ruled out.
What to watch
- • US CPI or PPI data releases in July 2026 could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold, slightly lowering Yes odds if inflation surprises high (downside risk to gold).
- • Geopolitical escalation (e.g., Iran or Ukraine) could spike gold prices, reinforcing the Yes outcome (upside risk to gold).
- • Federal Reserve interest rate decisions or hawkish statements could weigh on gold, but unlikely to drag it below 3591.99 (minimal impact on odds).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3591.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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