Will the gold close price be above 3631.99 USD/t.oz on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Gold price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 94% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 94% right now.
The market is pricing near-certainty because the threshold of 3631.99 is far below recent gold prices, which have been above $4,000 and even $5,200 in the past months, making a drop below the threshold highly unlikely.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines show gold prices at levels well above the threshold, e.g., July 3 forecast mentions $4,165 (FXStreet) and February mentions $5,200 (FXStreet).
- • Even after a 5% drop in March (FOREX.com), prices remained above the threshold, as the drop snapped a four-week streak but still likely above 3631.99.
- • The May 4 headline notes gold at monthly lows (TradingView), but no indication that lows fell below the threshold.
The case for YES
- • The threshold is 3631.99, while recent prices have been consistently above $4,000, as seen in the July 3 headline requiring a close above $4,165 to sustain recovery.
- • Even the lowest recent prices (monthly lows in May) are not reported to be below 3631.99, and the market has not seen such a low level in months.
- • The odds at 95% reflect overwhelming consensus that the price will remain above this relatively low bar.
The case for NO
- • A sudden geopolitical or economic shock could trigger a sharp sell-off, but no recent headlines indicate such an event.
- • The gold market has shown volatility, with a 5% drop in March (FOREX.com), but that drop still left prices far above the threshold.
- • To resolve No, gold would need to fall by roughly 10-15% from current levels (estimated from $4,165), which is a large move not supported by current data.
What to watch
- • No specific upcoming events are mentioned in the provided headlines; the near-certain odds are based on the large gap between the threshold and recent prices, not on anticipated catalysts.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3631.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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