Will the gold close price be above 3671.99 USD/t.oz on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Gold price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 91% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 91% right now.
Gold is far above the 3671.99 threshold, making a close below it unlikely unless a severe sell-off occurs, but the 95% odds leave little room for error given weeks of potential volatility.
What's driving it
- • Gold was forecast to need a weekly close above $4,165 as of July 3 (FXStreet), implying prices are well above the 3671.99 target.
- • Previous headlines showed gold above $5,200 in February (FXStreet) and at monthly lows in May (TradingView), but the recent recovery keeps it safely above 3671.99.
- • The odds jumped to 95% after the July 3 forecast confirmed gold's price level far exceeds the resolution threshold.
The case for YES
- • The current gold price is likely several hundred dollars above the 3671.99 strike, as suggested by the $4,165 recovery level (FXStreet, Jul 3).
- • Historical support levels, such as the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance mentioned in February (FXStreet), are far above the target, reducing the chance of a breach.
- • Even after a 5% drop in March (FOREX.com), gold remained above 3671.99, indicating the threshold is a weak resistance level.
The case for NO
- • A sudden geopolitical shock, like the Iran spike reversal in March (FOREX.com), could trigger a sharp decline below 3671.99.
- • US economic data releases, such as PPI (FXStreet, Feb 27), could strengthen the dollar and push gold lower.
- • The market is still three weeks away, and gold has shown significant volatility, with monthly lows in May (TradingView) suggesting a potential downward trend.
What to watch
- • Upcoming US inflation data (CPI/PPI) in late July could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold downward if stronger than expected.
- • Geopolitical developments in the Middle East or major central bank decisions could trigger a flight to safety or a risk-on move, impacting gold direction.
- • Technical breakdown below key support levels (e.g., $4,000) would increase the probability of a drop toward 3671.99.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3671.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
XRP Up or Down - Daily
Despite a series of bearish headlines highlighting an 80% drop in XRP Ledger payments and risks of a break below $1, the daily market has swung to 65% odds of an up day, gaining 4 points in 24 hours—suggesting traders are betting on a short-term bounce rather than the prevailing negative narrative.
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes
SUI Up or Down - Daily
The real story is that SUI's price is caught between a surge in network usage and a history of technical failures, with the odds slightly favoring an up day but far from certain.
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?
With no public headlines or recent events to cite, the 2% Yes / 98% No odds appear to reflect the extreme difficulty of a sumo wrestler staying undefeated for an entire calendar year, a feat rarely achieved in the sport's history.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA 6 releases?
This market pits a low-probability geopolitical event against an uncertain video game release, with odds heavily favoring No because China has not invaded Taiwan despite decades of rhetoric and any invasion would be a massive escalation unlikely before GTA 6's expected release within a few years.
Yes ≈ 8% chance