Will the gold close price be above 4791.99 USD/t.oz on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Gold price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.
The market is heavily priced at 5% Yes because the target of $4,791.99 is over 15% above the current gold price near $4,165, and recent forecasts show gold struggling to sustain even that lower level, making a rapid rally in 22 days extremely unlikely.
📊 Base rate: Historical gold monthly returns have a standard deviation of about 4%, so a 15% upward move in one month is a rare event, occurring roughly 2-3% of the time, consistent with the 5% odds.
What's driving it
- • Current gold price is around $4,165 per the latest headline (FXStreet, Jul 3), while the target is $4,791.99, a gap of over $600 that would require a massive rally.
- • Recent headlines highlight gold's weakness: the price hit monthly lows in early May (TradingView, May 4) and a 5% drop in March after a geopolitical spike erased gains (FOREX.com, Mar 6).
- • Technical forecasts focus on resistance at $4,165 and $5,200 (FXStreet, Jul 3 and Feb 27), indicating no near-term bullish case for the $4,792 level.
The case for YES
- • A major geopolitical crisis or unexpected dovish Fed pivot could trigger a safe-haven surge, as seen during the Iran spike in March (though it quickly reversed).
- • The target is a round number that could attract speculative buying if momentum builds, potentially causing a short squeeze.
- • Gold has historically had sharp rallies; a 15% move in a month, while rare, is not unprecedented in volatile conditions.
The case for NO
- • The price is currently far below the target with no fundamental catalyst strong enough to close the gap in under a month.
- • Technical resistance levels cited in forecasts are far lower (e.g., $4,165), suggesting selling pressure would emerge well before $4,792.
- • A strong U.S. dollar and moderating inflation expectations reduce gold's appeal, making a sustained rally unlikely.
What to watch
- • Federal Reserve interest rate decision on July 29: a dovish surprise could boost gold upward, while a hawkish stance would push it down.
- • U.S. Q2 GDP and employment data releases in late July: weaker data would support a gold rally, stronger data would weigh on prices.
- • Geopolitical developments, especially in the Middle East or Ukraine, could cause a sudden spike in gold prices (upward direction).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 4791.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
XRP Up or Down - Daily
Despite a series of bearish headlines highlighting an 80% drop in XRP Ledger payments and risks of a break below $1, the daily market has swung to 65% odds of an up day, gaining 4 points in 24 hours—suggesting traders are betting on a short-term bounce rather than the prevailing negative narrative.
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes
SUI Up or Down - Daily
The real story is that SUI's price is caught between a surge in network usage and a history of technical failures, with the odds slightly favoring an up day but far from certain.
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?
With no public headlines or recent events to cite, the 2% Yes / 98% No odds appear to reflect the extreme difficulty of a sumo wrestler staying undefeated for an entire calendar year, a feat rarely achieved in the sport's history.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA 6 releases?
This market pits a low-probability geopolitical event against an uncertain video game release, with odds heavily favoring No because China has not invaded Taiwan despite decades of rhetoric and any invasion would be a massive escalation unlikely before GTA 6's expected release within a few years.
Yes ≈ 8% chance