Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How many Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 61% chance — more likely than not.
Across venues
· updated 5hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 37%–61%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The two prediction markets together give a roughly 46% chance of 4–6 hurricanes, but they disagree notably—Polymarket puts it at 37% while K
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 61% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 4 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes