Will the natural gas close price be above 3.120 USD/MMBtu on July 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Natural gas price on July 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The 98% No odds reflect extreme confidence that the price will stay below 3.120, likely driven by a persistent downtrend and lack of bullish catalysts, with European gas futures trade ideas (Jul 24) reinforcing bearish sentiment.
What's driving it
- • European natural gas futures trade ideas on July 24 (EEX TTF) indicate bearish short-term expectations, potentially influencing global gas sentiment.
- • The June 23 technical analysis noted US natural gas prices remained bid, but the subsequent absence of upward momentum has shifted expectations lower.
- • The odds have remained at 2% Yes for an extended period, suggesting no recent bullish news has emerged to challenge the consensus.
The case for YES
- • A sudden cold snap or supply disruption could spike prices above 3.120, though no such event is currently reported.
- • If the current price is near 3.120, a small positive move could push it over the threshold; the market may be underestimating volatility.
- • The June 23 headline mentioned US natural gas prices remained bid, indicating underlying support that could still lift prices.
The case for NO
- • The 98% No odds reflect strong market conviction that the price is well below 3.120 and unlikely to recover in a single day.
- • Recent European natural gas futures trade ideas (Jul 24, Jul 19) suggest a bearish demand outlook, which could spill over to US markets.
- • No headlines indicate any bullish catalyst for US natural gas in the immediate term, reinforcing the low probability of a close above 3.120.
What to watch
- • The market resolves tomorrow at 5 PM EDT; any unexpected price movement during the trading day will be the only catalyst, but no specific scheduled events exist.
- • A release of short-term weather forecasts could influence intraday trading, but no major updates are scheduled before the close.
- • The EIA weekly storage report is due July 30, after the market resolves, so it will not affect this market.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDU6 contract on July 27, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 3.120 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
XRP Up or Down - Daily
Despite a series of bearish headlines highlighting an 80% drop in XRP Ledger payments and risks of a break below $1, the daily market has swung to 65% odds of an up day, gaining 4 points in 24 hours—suggesting traders are betting on a short-term bounce rather than the prevailing negative narrative.
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes
SUI Up or Down - Daily
The real story is that SUI's price is caught between a surge in network usage and a history of technical failures, with the odds slightly favoring an up day but far from certain.
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?
With no public headlines or recent events to cite, the 2% Yes / 98% No odds appear to reflect the extreme difficulty of a sumo wrestler staying undefeated for an entire calendar year, a feat rarely achieved in the sport's history.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA 6 releases?
This market pits a low-probability geopolitical event against an uncertain video game release, with odds heavily favoring No because China has not invaded Taiwan despite decades of rhetoric and any invasion would be a massive escalation unlikely before GTA 6's expected release within a few years.
Yes ≈ 8% chance
DOGE Up or Down - Daily
Despite a cascade of bearish headlines—including a 25% weekly plunge in early June and a down close on July 11—the market now assigns an 80% probability to DOGE closing up on the daily resolution, suggesting traders are betting on a sharp reversal or a catalyst not captured in the provided news.
Yes ≈ 98% chance