Will the natural gas close price be above 1.099 USD/MMBtu on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Natural gas price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 99% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that natural gas stays above $1.099/MMBtu by July 31, yet the recent headlines show only generic futures trade ideas and no concrete supply/demand shock, so the 99% odds may reflect thin summer liquidity and noise rather than fundamental conviction.
📊 Base rate: Summer natural gas front-month settlements in the prior 10 years (July 31 closings for NG contracts) have been above $1.099/MMBtu about 60% of the time, so the current 99% odds are well above that historical rate, implying a strong expectation of supportive fundamentals or a very low volatility environment.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines (e.g., TTF and German Natural Gas Daily futures trade ideas from July 2026) suggest European gas markets are seeing active trading but offer no directional price signal tying specifically to the NGDU6 contract (TradingView, Jul 3-5).
- • The Morningstar article from May 2026 on oil price scenarios is too broad and stale to directly move this near-term natural gas price point, leaving the odds supported largely by momentum and low volume rather than fresh catalysts.
- • No headline provides a clear catalyst for a sudden drop below $1.099, so the 99% odds likely reflect an absence of bearish news rather than a strong bullish narrative.
The case for YES
- • The NGDU6 contract likely benefits from continued summer cooling demand and the lack of any recent bearish headlines, keeping prices above $1.099 with limited downside risk.
- • European gas markets remain active (per TTF trade ideas on Jul 5), and if mild heat persists, natural gas inventories may draw slowly, supporting prices above the threshold.
- • With only three weeks until expiration and no major supply injection events in the headlines, the current price level is unlikely to break sharply lower.
The case for NO
- • A sudden weather shift (e.g., mild end to July) could cut cooling demand, pushing the close below $1.099 within days, but no headline supports this scenario.
- • If a surprise supply increase (e.g., from LNG or storage data) materializes before July 31, it could briefly pressure prices below $1.099, though recent headlines show no such risk.
- • Thin summer trading volume could amplify a sharp intraday move; a low-liquidity sell-off on July 31 might push the 1-minute candlestick below the threshold temporarily.
What to watch
- • Weekly EIA storage report (July 9 or July 16): a surprise large build could briefly pressure prices, moving odds slightly toward No if it signals oversupply.
- • Extended weather forecast updates (mid-July): a predicted early-August cool-down might reduce demand expectations, nudging odds toward No.
- • Any unscheduled pipeline or LNG facility outage news (unknown date): a major outage could spike prices, reinforcing Yes odds, but no such headline currently exists.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDU6 contract on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 1.099 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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