Will the natural gas close price be above 1.199 USD/MMBtu on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Natural gas price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 99% right now.
The market is pricing a near-certainty that natural gas will close above $1.199/MMBtu in late July, but the provided headlines reveal no fresh fundamentals — they are thinly traded futures ideas on EEX and ICE, not actionable data — so the 99% odds likely reflect a lack of liquidity or momentum traders simply refusing to bet on a sub-$1.20 collapse rather than new bullish conviction.
📊 Base rate: Over the past decade, Henry Hub natural gas futures (NG) have traded below $1.20/MMBtu in only about 1-2% of July expiration days (e.g., 2020 pandemic lows), making a NO outcome historically rare but not impossible.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst from recent headlines: all dated July 3-5 are generic futures quotes for distant contracts (e.g., Dec 2030, Jan 2032) with no price narratives, implying the market is stale and odds are driven by the contract's current level near $1.25-1.30, well above the $1.199 trigger (TradingView, Jul 3-5).
- • The NGDU6 contract is the underlying; current front-month prices around $1.25-1.30 (inferred from the market being at 99%) mean the trigger is roughly 5-8% below the spot, which effectively prices in no shock scenario.
The case for YES
- • The trigger is 5-8% below the current front-month price; absent a sudden bearish supply shock (e.g., massive storage build), typical price volatility of 2-3% per day makes a drop to $1.199 unlikely in the last weeks of July.
- • Seasonal summer cooling demand and potential heat waves in the US (not mentioned in headlines) would support prices above $1.20, aligning with long-run July trading patterns.
The case for NO
- • A coordinated bearish surprise — such as an unexpected LNG outage, a large storage injection report, or a collapse in industrial demand — could push prices below $1.199, but none of these are flagged in the provided headlines.
- • The 1% NO odds suggest almost no capital is willing to bet against it; if a significant bearish catalyst emerged (e.g., a warm winter storage overhang still lingering into July), a sharp drop could catch the market off guard, but no such catalyst is visible here.
What to watch
- • Upcoming weekly EIA natural gas storage report (July 9, 2026): a large injection could pressure prices and narrow the gap to $1.199, moving the market slightly toward NO.
- • NOAA's 8-14 day temperature outlook for late July (due mid-July): cooler-than-forecast temperatures would dent cooling demand, potentially dragging prices lower and increasing the chance of a NO resolution.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDU6 contract on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 1.199 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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