Will the natural gas close price be above 1.399 USD/MMBtu on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Natural gas price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 99% right now.
The 99% odds reflect a near-certainty that the Henry Hub close price will remain above an extremely low threshold of 1.399 USD/MMBtu, a level that has been exceeded on the vast majority of trading days in the last decade, rather than any new bullish catalyst.
📊 Base rate: Since 2010, the Henry Hub natural gas daily close price has been above 1.399 USD/MMBtu on over 95% of trading days, making the current odds consistent with that historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • The market’s odds have been near 100% for weeks, likely because the current NGDU6 contract price is comfortably above 1.399 (no headline gives an exact price, but the 99% odds imply this).
- • Recent headlines from July 3-5 (TradingView) show trade ideas for European natural gas futures, but these are not directly linked to the Henry Hub NGDU6 contract and do not explain the extreme odds.
- • No significant bearish catalyst has emerged in the past month; the Morningstar oil article from May 18 is too old and unrelated to natural gas to affect the near-term resolution.
The case for YES
- • The threshold of 1.399 is a very low price relative to the historical range of Henry Hub natural gas, which has rarely dipped below that level in recent years.
- • The current NGDU6 futures price is likely well above 1.399, and with only 23 days to expiration, a sudden drop below it would require an unprecedented market shock.
- • No headline suggests any supply glut, demand collapse, or weather event that could push prices below 1.399 in the short term.
The case for NO
- • Extreme weather or a sudden storage surplus could theoretically cause a price crash, but no such catalyst is visible in the provided headlines.
- • If the EIA weekly storage report on July 9 or 16 shows a massive injection, it could pressure prices, but the move would need to be historically large to breach 1.399.
- • The market is highly concentrated at 99%; a single large sell order could briefly push the price below 1.399 at the close, though this is speculative and not supported by data.
What to watch
- • EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (July 9, 2026): A larger-than-expected injection could slightly lower prices, but the direction is likely neutral or mildly negative; insufficient to flip the odds from 99%.
- • Weather forecasts for late July (July 15-20): Unseasonably warm weather could increase cooling demand and support prices, keeping the odds near 100%.
- • Any unexpected outage at a major LNG export facility (e.g., Sabine Pass) would reduce demand and could push prices down, but the effect would need to be extreme to reach 1.399.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDU6 contract on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 1.399 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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