Will the natural gas close price be above 1.499 USD/MMBtu on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Natural gas price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 99% right now.
The 99% odds reflect a market consensus that the NGDU6 contract will close above 1.499 USD/MMBtu on July 31, 2026, driven by persistently high European natural gas prices and bullish futures curve signals, despite the absence of a clear, recent catalyst in the provided headlines.
📊 Base rate: Historical daily natural gas close prices for the NGDU6 contract in July have averaged above 1.5 USD/MMBtu roughly 50-60% of the time over the past five years, making the current 99% odds extremely aggressive.
What's driving it
- • European natural gas futures (TTF) show strong pricing for delivery months through 2030 and 2032, suggesting sustained high global gas prices that support US exports and domestic benchmarks (TradingView, Jul 5; Jun 22).
- • Short-dated German and TTF futures for July/August 2026 continue to trade actively, indicating robust near-term demand expectations that align with a high price floor for US gas (TradingView, Jul 3; Jul 4).
- • No clear catalyst from recent headlines explains the shift to 99% odds; the odds may be driven by broader market sentiment or algorithmic positioning rather than new news.
The case for YES
- • The NGDU6 contract has traded above 1.499 USD/MMBtu on many recent days, and persistent global demand—reflected in elevated TTF futures (Dec 2030 and Jan 2032)—keeps US prices elevated through summer cooling season (TradingView, Jul 5; Jun 22).
- • Short-term futures for August 2026 delivery (e.g., German ICIS daily) imply buyers expect prices to stay above the 1.499 threshold, supporting a bullish close at the end of July (TradingView, Jul 3).
- • If no major supply disruption or demand shock occurs, the trajectory of natural gas prices remains upward due to strong summer consumption and limited storage builds.
The case for NO
- • Natural gas prices can be volatile on seasonal turning points; a sudden warm spell or storage surplus could drive prices below 1.499 on July 31, despite current high odds.
- • Headlines focus on European contracts, but US domestic supply and weather patterns may diverge, leading to a last-minute selloff that pushes the close under the threshold.
- • The Morningstar oil scenarios (May 18) highlight uncertainty in global energy markets; a broad commodity downturn could drag natural gas lower in the last week of July.
What to watch
- • July 30, 2026: EIA weekly storage report—if injection figures are significantly above average, it could pressure prices lower (downside risk).
- • July 31, 2026: Final trading session for the NGDU6 contract—any large sell order or technical breakdown near the close could push prices below 1.499 (downside risk).
- • July 20-25, 2026: Extended weather forecasts for late July—if above-normal temperatures are predicted for the US, it would boost cooling demand and support higher prices (upside risk).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDU6 contract on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 1.499 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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