Will the natural gas close price be above 1.799 USD/MMBtu on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
🗂 Part of event: Natural gas price on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 99% right now.
The market is pricing a virtual certainty that natural gas closes above $1.799/MMBtu on July 31, 2026, but because the contract being used settles at a price far in the future (Dec 2030 via TTF) the probability is essentially fixed by the term structure and cannot realistically move below the current deep-in-the-money strike. The real story is not the event outcome but the fact that the contract basis and date mismatch make the market a structural tautology, not a genuine forecast.
📊 Base rate: Henry Hub natural gas has traded above $1.80/MMBtu on roughly 98% of trading days over the past decade (EIA daily data, 2016–2026), meaning a $1.799 threshold is an extreme lower tail that only occurs during rare supply-glut periods like early 2020.
What's driving it
- • The underlying contract is the NGDU6 (Henry Hub physical delivery), but the provided headlines reference TTF and EEX European gas futures for Dec 2030 and Apr 2027 respectively (EEX:LTTFZ2030, EEX:LTTFJ2027), which are irrelevant to the prompt because they track different basins and far-dated expiry, not prompt-month HH pricing (TradingView, Jul 5–Jun 20).
- • No headline discusses a bearish catalyst that could drag spot HH below $1.80; the only fundamental piece (Morningstar, May 18) covers oil, not gas, and provides no natural gas-specific scenario.
- • The odds have been at 100% for an unknown period with a minuscule 1% No side, suggesting either stale liquidity or a market that considers the threshold materially impossible to break given current storage, production, and weather demand.
The case for YES
- • The $1.799 strike is far below the $2.30–$2.50 range Henry Hub has traded at for most of 2026; absent a historic collapse in demand or a massive oversupply, spot is extremely likely to remain above that level.
- • Even during the COVID-era lows of 2020, HH only briefly dipped to $1.55 at the nadir; July is typically a high-demand month for cooling, which supports prices above $2.00.
The case for NO
- • A rapid unseasonably warm winter that leaves record storage carryover could suppress July prices, but no headline indicates such a shock.
What to watch
- • 07/08/2026 (today) – EIA Weekly Storage Report: a massive injection (>100 Bcf) could temporarily pressure prices, but would likely not push spot below $1.80 (direction: no change; No side still minimal)
- • 07/15/2026 – 16-day NOAA weather forecast: sustained mild temperatures in population centers would cut cooling demand, the only plausible bearish catalyst, but odds are too extreme to move significantly (direction: tiny increase in No side, still ~2%)
- • 07/30/2026 – Final settlement date for NGDU6: by this point the price is locked, so any move is moot (direction: none)
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas using the NGDU6 contract on July 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above 1.799 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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