Maxx Crosby's Next Team
🗂 Part of event: Maxx Crosby's Next Team →Tap a candidate to show/hide its line · double-tap to isolate
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Stays with Las Vegas or Retires at about a 61% chance — more likely than not.
The field is extremely concentrated on Crosby staying with Las Vegas or retiring, with a 71% share, but recent headlines show a tug-of-war between fan sentiment and front-office signals, not a clear shift toward a trade.
📊 Base rate: Star defensive ends in their prime rarely change teams via trade; since 2010, fewer than 10% of Pro Bowl edge rushers have been dealt before their contract expired.
What's driving it
- • A Raiders fan survey (The New York Times, Jul 22) shows divided belief in new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, indirectly fueling speculation about Crosby's patience with a rebuild.
- • Crosby's own major announcement ahead of training camp (heavy.com, Jul 23) and availability update (Sports Illustrated, Jul 23) suggest he is engaged with the team, not forcing a move.
- • An NFL insider's take that Raiders owner Mark Davis 'couldn't agree with more' (A to Z Sports, Jul 22) hints at organizational alignment to keep Crosby, reducing trade odds.
- • The GM's blunt address on Crosby's future (On3, Jul 19) reinforces the front office's public stance to retain him, but leaves room for a blockbuster offer.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Crosby's own public engagement with training camp (heavy.com, Jul 23) and the GM's blunt statement (On3, Jul 19) both signal the team's intent to keep him, making a trade unlikely without a massive offer.
- • The Raiders' fan survey (The New York Times, Jul 22) shows no overwhelming mandate to trade Crosby, reducing pressure on ownership to deal him.
- • The brief return of Crosby in July (The New York Times, Jul 15) was described as a preview of what's to come, implying he is committed to the team for now.
Why it's still open
- • The fan survey (The New York Times, Jul 22) reveals significant doubt about the team's direction under Klint Kubiak, which could erode Crosby's desire to stay if the season goes poorly.
- • A team like San Francisco or Dallas, each at 4%, could overtake with a trade package of multiple first-round picks, especially if the Raiders falter early in 2026.
- • The insider take (A to Z Sports, Jul 22) that Davis agrees with a 'wait-and-see' approach leaves the door open for a midseason trade if the Raiders are out of contention.
What to watch
- • Raiders training camp starting in late July 2026: If Crosby reports and participates fully, odds of him staying will rise; if he holds out or requests a trade, odds for other teams will spike.
- • Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season (early September): A strong Raiders start would cement his stay; a blowout loss could trigger trade rumors and boost San Francisco or Dallas odds.
- • The NFL trade deadline (late October 2026): If the Raiders are below .500, a deadline deal to a contender like San Francisco or Detroit becomes a live possibility, shifting odds sharply.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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Maxx Crosby
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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