Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $115.01 by Dec 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 40% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 40% right now.
Odds jumped 4 points in 24 hours after the Iran peace deal collapsed, but reaching $115 from ~$72 still requires a 60%+ rally — a tail event that depends on a full-blown supply crisis rather than just the current premium.
📊 Base rate: Since 2000, WTI front month has settled above $115 only in 2008 (peak $145) and briefly in 2022 (peak $130), giving a roughly 8% historical probability for a given year.
What's driving it
- • A 24h odds surge of +4pts (to 44%) followed the Jul 8 Reuters report that Trump called the Iran peace deal 'over', sending crude prices up and reigniting war premium.
- • The Jul 7 attack on a merchant ship near the Strait of Hormuz pushed WTI to a two-week high above $72 (finance.biggo.com), reinforcing supply-disruption fears.
- • The prior sharp 20% monthly drop in May (MarketWatch, May 29) had depressed oil sentiment, so the current odds reflect a partial recovery of risk appetite.
The case for YES
- • A full-scale Iran conflict or blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could cut off a significant share of global oil supply, sending prices well above $115 as seen in historical war spikes.
- • Current WTI near $72 is far from $115, but only a further 60% rally is needed; oil has risen by this magnitude in weeks during past supply shocks (e.g., 1990 Gulf War, 2008 run-up).
The case for NO
- • WTI currently sits near $72, and to reach $115 would require an unprecedented sustained rally of over 60% from an already elevated geopolitical risk level, which seems improbable without a deeper global supply crisis.
- • The May 2026 tumble of nearly 20% (MarketWatch) reflects underlying demand weakness or ample supply, and the recent geopolitical spikes have already been partially priced in, limiting further upside.
What to watch
- • Any confirmed Iranian seizure or blockade of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz (direction: Yes).
- • A US-Iran backchannel ceasefire agreement or resumption of nuclear talks (direction: No).
- • OPEC+ emergency meeting to adjust production quotas in light of perceived supply risks (direction: ambiguous but leaning No if they increase output).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If ICE reports that the maximum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is above $115 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
The market is nearly evenly split between a crash to $55 and a surge to $120, but the small recent shift toward the dump scenario reflects that near-term demand weakness and infrastructure investment are outweighing supply disruption risks for now.
2 outcomes
S&P 500 Futures Price (7050)
Despite rising oil prices on Iran headlines, the market assigns an 81% probability that S&P 500 futures will meet the 7050 threshold, suggesting investors expect strong earnings reports to outweigh energy cost concerns.
Yes ≈ 81% chance