Oil (UKOILSPOT) Up or Down - Daily
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Data from Limitless’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved on-chain per each market's written rules (USDC, on the Base network).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Limitless ↗Related markets
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
The market sees a low probability of a US announcement to halt Iran offensive operations by July 31, with odds dropping 4 points in 24 hours, likely because a recent headline (July 21) suggests a possible halt by August 31 instead, pushing the deadline past the resolution date.
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA 6 releases?
The market is betting heavily that China will not invade Taiwan before the release of GTA 6, reflecting a belief that military action is unlikely in the near term despite heightened political rhetoric.
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Aella's Magic Button poll: which side gets more votes? [SHORT FUSE]
Yes ≈ 93% chance