Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?
7¢Yes
Price history builds as this market trades.
No price history yet
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
StatusOpen
ClosesDec 31, 2029 · 3y
Total volumeⱮ2.3K
Liquidity
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Closes Dec 31, 2029 (3y)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗