What will be the next city to be nuked? (add your picks)
45¢None (before 2124)
Price history builds as this market trades.
No price history yet
None (before 2124)45%
Other21%
Kiev8%
another Ukrainian city besides Kyiv (e.g., Kharkiv, Odessa, or Dnipro)6%
Delhi5%
Tehran3%
10 more12%
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: None (before 2124) at about a 45% chance — a coin toss.
StatusOpen
ClosesJan 2, 2124 · —
Total volumeⱮ11.8K
Liquidity
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Closes Jan 2, 2124 (—)
Resolution criteria
Terrorism counts, tests don't
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗