Where will the team that gets the 20th AFL license be based?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: The Northern Territory at about a 38% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
In May 2023, the 19th AFL (Australian Football League) license was confirmed, with the club to be based in Tasmania. Where will the club that gets the 20th license be based? Note that specific cities/locations will result in resolutions that fall under whereever they are located, e.g. Canberra will mean resolving to ACT, Auckland to New Zealand, Joondalup to WA, Cairns to Queensland, etc. This market will resolve once they play their first match representing their location. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Football_League https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_rules_football https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_VFL/AFL_clubs
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
NCAAF (2026) Regular Season Team Points
108 outcomes
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Yes ≈ 5% chance