Manifold features launched in 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Merch store at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The field is extremely concentrated with seven features at 100% probability, but the 87% on improved liquidity handling and the absence of recent Manifold-specific news suggest that the market's confidence may be based on assumptions rather than concrete evidence.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds appear to reflect long-standing expectations rather than new information.
- • The creator's clarification that subscription plans can be in Mana may have solidified that feature's 100% odds.
- • The clarification that external PRs count for voluntary jury duty could increase its odds, but it is not among the leaders.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Merch store, Predictle, Charity lottery, User calibration, Better Explore page, Subscription plan, and Interest on all positions are all at 100%, likely because they are common features on similar platforms and Manifold has previously indicated interest in them.
- • The subscription plan's 100% is reinforced by the creator's explicit definition allowing Mana payments, reducing implementation barriers.
- • The high number of 100% features suggests the market expects a broad rollout of standard platform enhancements.
Why it's still open
- • Improved liquidity handling at 87% indicates some doubt, possibly due to technical complexity or prioritization conflicts.
- • The presence of 31 candidates all above 5% shows that many features are considered plausible, meaning any of the 100% features could still fail if resources are diverted.
- • The lack of recent Manifold-specific news means the market is operating on stale information, increasing the risk of surprises.
What to watch
- • No dated events are provided; any future Manifold blog post or product announcement could shift odds.
- • If Manifold releases a roadmap update, features not mentioned could drop in probability.
- • If a feature like improved liquidity handling is demoed, its odds could rise to 100%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Which features will Manifold ship in 2026? The feature must appear live on the site before the end of 2026. (External PRs that have been merged will count.) Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Subscription plan: Must be a real subscription (not a one-time purchase without automatic monthly payments). Can potentially be in Mana rather than real currency. Update 2026-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Voluntary jury duty for resolving contentious markets: This answer does not need to be implemented by the Manifold team directly — external PRs that have been merged will also count toward resolution.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes