How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: >= 100 at about a 95% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet: [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers. I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates. See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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