Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Twitter(X) posts "today" between 9am to 9pm CST
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Tuesday, June 18th, 2024 at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The field is extremely concentrated on a single outcome—100% for every listed date—indicating near-certainty that Musk posts at least twice between 9am and 9pm CST, driven by his consistent posting behavior and the fact that reposts and replies are excluded, making the threshold low. The only notable shift is the absence of any recent headline about a change in his posting frequency, suggesting the odds are anchored by historical pattern rather than a new catalyst.
📊 Base rate: Elon Musk has posted multiple times per day on X on the vast majority of days since acquiring the platform in 2022, making a two-post threshold a near-daily occurrence.
What's driving it
- • Musk’s near-daily online posts about race (The Washington Post, Apr 24) confirm he remains highly active on X, supporting the high probability of multiple posts within the 12-hour window.
- • The market’s 100% odds for multiple consecutive days (June 18–27) reflect a consistent pattern of at least two posts per day, with no recent headline indicating a reduction in activity.
- • No clear catalyst has recently changed Musk’s posting behavior; the odds are sustained by his established routine rather than a specific event.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Musk has posted multiple times daily on X for years, making two posts in a 12-hour window a very low bar that he routinely exceeds.
- • The market’s 100% odds for every listed date show that traders see no realistic chance of him posting fewer than twice, given his history and the exclusion of reposts and replies.
Why it's still open
- • A sudden, unannounced break from posting—such as a personal emergency or a deliberate social-media hiatus—could cause him to post zero or one time, but no recent headlines suggest such an event.
- • If Musk were to post only once during the 9am–9pm window, the market would resolve NO, but his daily output makes this scenario extremely unlikely based on the data.
What to watch
- • A major legal ruling or regulatory action (e.g., the SEC lawsuit over Twitter share purchases, The Washington Post, Jan 14) could distract Musk and reduce his posting frequency, pushing odds down.
- • A high-profile event like a product launch or earnings call could increase his posting activity, reinforcing the current high odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves to Yes if Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts during the day between 9am to 9pm CST!!! Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count!!! Resolves to NO otherwise. Resolves N/A if I was unable to verify if Elon Musk tweeted 2 or more times during the stated period https://twitter.com/elonmusk Note: A quoted post are still counted as a post, as long as it doesn't have a report header. Thanks to @AmmonLam 🤝 Suggest improvements to this market. [image]
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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