How many test runs will Steve Smith make before he retires?

56¢10,000-12,000

Price history builds as this market trades.

No price history yet

10,000-12,00056%

12,000-14,00037%

14,000-16,0004%

16,000+2%

Less than 10,0001%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: 10,000-12,000 at about a 56% chance — more likely than not.

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StatusOpen

ClosesNov 11, 2030 · 4y

Total volumeⱮ724

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Nov 11, 2030 (4y)

Resolution criteria

How many test runs will Steve Smith make for Australia before he retires?

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗