Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Javokhir Sindarov at about a 23% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Based on official FIDE classical ratings, not live. If two players pass the threshold at the same update, will resolve based on who passed the threshold in live ratings first. If there is still a tie, then it will resolve based on which tied player has the higher rating. Can resolve as someone currently rated 2800 or above in the event that they dip below 2800 in the official (non live) ratings and then passes it again in a later month. Resolution date will be extended as needed. Rating source: https://ratings.fide.com/ Update 2025-09-01 (PST): - Resolution Date will not occur in January 2025. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Date: February 2025 Exclusion: The market will not resolve in February 2025 even if a player surpasses 2800. The resolution date will be extended as needed. Update 2025-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Update: March Exclusion: The market will not resolve in March. Update 2025-04-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): April 2025 Exclusion The market will not resolve in April 2025 even if a player surpasses 2800. The resolution date will be extended as needed. Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): May 2025 Exclusion: The market will not resolve in May 2025, even if a player surpasses 2800 Elo in the official FIDE list for that month. The resolution date will be extended as needed. Update 2025-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - June and July Exclusion: The market will not resolve in June or July. Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Close date extension: The market close date will be extended beyond 2025-12-31, as it appears unlikely anyone will cross 2800 Elo in 2025.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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