Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 8% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 8% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
XRP Up or Down - Daily
Despite a series of bearish headlines highlighting an 80% drop in XRP Ledger payments and risks of a break below $1, the daily market has swung to 65% odds of an up day, gaining 4 points in 24 hours—suggesting traders are betting on a short-term bounce rather than the prevailing negative narrative.
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Polymarket or Kalshi?
This market is a pure sentiment gauge with no resolution, so the 72% Polymarket lead reflects a persistent narrative advantage from its on-chain identity and aggressive bonus campaigns, but Kalshi's recent $500 referral push and a Washington Post controversy show it can still capture attention and shift the conversation.
2 outcomes
SUI Up or Down - Daily
The real story is that SUI's price is caught between a surge in network usage and a history of technical failures, with the odds slightly favoring an up day but far from certain.
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026?
With no public headlines or recent events to cite, the 2% Yes / 98% No odds appear to reflect the extreme difficulty of a sumo wrestler staying undefeated for an entire calendar year, a feat rarely achieved in the sport's history.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA 6 releases?
This market pits a low-probability geopolitical event against an uncertain video game release, with odds heavily favoring No because China has not invaded Taiwan despite decades of rhetoric and any invasion would be a massive escalation unlikely before GTA 6's expected release within a few years.
Yes ≈ 8% chance
DOGE Up or Down - Daily
Despite a cascade of bearish headlines—including a 25% weekly plunge in early June and a down close on July 11—the market now assigns an 80% probability to DOGE closing up on the daily resolution, suggesting traders are betting on a sharp reversal or a catalyst not captured in the provided news.
Yes ≈ 98% chance