Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
The near-zero odds reflect that WTI crude oil has already fallen to four-month lows near $40, but market forces—reopened Hormuz flows and a surge in Iranian supply—make a further drop to exactly $40 highly unlikely within the remaining days of July 2026.
What's driving it
- • Crude oil hit a four-month low on July 3 as US-Iran talks eased supply fears (MSN, 2026-07-03).
- • Returning tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has added significant supply (Reuters, 2026-06-26).
- • A massive 150 million barrels of Iranian oil have entered the market, putting downward pressure on prices (24/7 Wall St., 2026-06-29).
- • Oil prices have returned to pre-war levels on rising Middle East output (Al Jazeera, 2026-06-25).
The case for YES
- • The recent 4-month low shows price momentum is downward; a single 1-minute candle could spike to $40 during volatile trading (MSN, 2026-07-03).
- • The surge in Iranian supply and restored Hormuz flows could trigger a temporary panic sell-off below key support (Reuters, 2026-06-26).
- • Futures contracts often test round-number thresholds like $40 during intraday shakeouts, even if they close higher.
The case for NO
- • Analysts warn the Iranian oil influx may be short-lived and prices could stabilize rather than break further (24/7 Wall St., 2026-06-29).
- • Oil prices are already near four-month lows, suggesting the market has already priced in most of the supply increase without reaching $40 (FXEmpire, 2026-07-02).
- • With only a few days left in July, the probability of a 1-minute candle hitting exactly $40 given current stability around $43-$45 is extremely low.
What to watch
- • Upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks (July 10–12): if they collapse, supply fears could reverse, pushing prices up and away from $40 (direction: lower probability for Yes).
- • Weekly EIA crude inventories report (July 8): a larger-than-expected build in US stockpiles could trigger a sharp intraday drop that tests $40 (direction: higher probability for Yes).
- • Potential OPEC+ emergency meeting (rumored late July): any pledge to cut production could reverse the slide, lowering the chance of a $40 hit (direction: lower probability for Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
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