Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
🗂 Part of event: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in July 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 38% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 38% right now.
The sharp 21-point drop in Yes odds reflects growing conviction that record US and UAE output, combined with demand fears, will keep WTI above $80 despite supply disruptions from Russian refinery outages and Iran tensions.
What's driving it
- • Record US oil production (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) and UAE output at 4.1M bpd (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13) are flooding the market, pushing prices lower and reducing the chance of a dip to $80.
- • Economic worries drove a 2% oil price drop on July 9 (Reuters), reinforcing the bearish demand outlook that makes a low below $80 less likely.
- • Oil prices have returned to pre-war levels (Business Insider, Jul 7), indicating that the supply shock from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been fully absorbed, removing a key upside risk.
The case for YES
- • If demand weakens further due to a global recession, WTI could break below $80, especially with record supply from the US and UAE.
- • The resolution condition is a single 1-minute candle low, so a brief intraday spike down to $80 is possible during a panic sell-off, even if prices close higher.
- • Ukrainian strikes have crippled Russian refinery output (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13), but if that leads to more Russian crude exports, it could add to global supply and push prices down.
The case for NO
- • Record US and UAE production is already priced in, and any further supply increases are limited; OPEC+ may cut output to defend $80.
- • Geopolitical risks in the Middle East (Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz) and Russian supply disruptions provide a floor under prices, making a sustained drop to $80 unlikely.
- • The 24-hour odds drop of 21 points suggests the market has already moved to price out the chance of hitting $80, and momentum is against a Yes resolution.
What to watch
- • Weekly US EIA crude inventory reports (every Wednesday) – a larger-than-expected draw could push prices up (No direction), while a build could push them down (Yes direction).
- • Any escalation in Iran-Israel tensions or new sanctions on Russian oil could spike prices (No direction).
- • OPEC+ meeting in early August – if they announce production cuts, it would support prices (No direction); if they maintain or increase quotas, it could pressure prices lower (Yes direction).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of July 2026, any 1-minute candle for the Active Month of WTI Crude Oil futures has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to the nearest listed contract's last trading session. At that point, the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). Per CME contract specifications for WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures, a contract's last trading day is three business days prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month (or four business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a business day). For example, if the 25th of the month is a Saturday, the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Tuesday the 21st, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for Friday the 17th (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil (CL) futures contract by CME Group may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Active Month WTI Crude Oil futures "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=WTI, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.