Game and tournament outcomes as live, market-implied odds gathered from across the market.
201 markets · page 4 of 9
Figueiredo's title hopes have collapsed after consecutive losses to Song Yadong (May 30) and Cory Sandhagen (July 12), making a 2026 championship run extremely unlikely at 6%.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Oliveira's odds collapsed 28 points in a week as his path to a UFC title narrowed: Gaethje's camp ruled out a rematch, and Oliveira himself is now chasing a non-title BMF belt, signaling he is not in immediate championship contention.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 27% chance
Shavkat Rakhmonov's 2026 title hopes are nearly off the table because he spent the first half of the year recovering from knee surgery and has not fought since 2024, leaving him with no path to a title shot before the year ends.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Belal Muhammad's 2% chance reflects that he is not currently a UFC champion and has no announced UFC title fight in 2026; instead, he is booked for a non-UFC bout against Colby Covington in August, making a 2026 UFC title win highly unlikely.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Ankalaev's 9-point odds bump stems from a newly booked July 25 fight, but he remains far from a title shot due to division depth and a dominant champion.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance