Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,317 markets · page 94 of 97
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Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?
Yes28¢
No72¢
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Ɱ2K Vol5mo
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Will the next Expert Survey on Progress in AI estimate 50% chance Full Automation of Labor after 2080?
Yes59¢
No41¢
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Ɱ71 Vol5mo
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Will AI companies be crucially important to American Progress in the next 2 decades?
Yes90¢
No10¢
Yes ≈ 90% chance
Ɱ192 Vol16y
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In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Yes91¢
No9¢
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Ɱ26.9K Vol3y
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Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028?
Yes40¢
No60¢
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Ɱ22 Vol1y
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Will AI be officially recognized as ‘AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence) before the end of 2027?
Yes12¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Ɱ450 Vol1y
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Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?
Yes52¢
No49¢
Yes ≈ 52% chance
Ɱ934 Vol5mo
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Will Meek Mill raise $10 million or more for an AI company by the end of 2026?
Yes38¢
No62¢
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Ɱ74 Vol5mo
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AI agent able to transfer lossless corpus of someone's Roam Research notes [INCL PICTURES] to Obsidian by EOY2027?
Yes63¢
No37¢
Yes ≈ 63% chance
Ɱ53 Vol1y
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Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Yes56¢
No44¢
Yes ≈ 56% chance
Ɱ142 Vol14y
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3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Yes75¢
No25¢
Yes ≈ 75% chance
Ɱ960 Vol5mo
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Generative AI video used as false evidence in criminal trial by Dec 31, 2026?
Yes76¢
No24¢
Yes ≈ 76% chance
Ɱ277 Vol5mo
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The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it get further away from midnight?
Yes4¢
No96¢
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Ɱ553 Vol7mo
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A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027
Yes36¢
No64¢
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Ɱ52 Vol5mo
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By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?
Yes10¢
No90¢
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Ɱ14.3K Vol5mo
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Will "AI safety undervalues founders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Yes11¢
No89¢
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Ɱ270 Vol6mo
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Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?
Yes12¢
No88¢
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Ɱ1.4K Vol3y
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Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?
Yes90¢
No10¢
Yes ≈ 90% chance
Ɱ2.2K Vol3y
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Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?
Yes14¢
No86¢
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Ɱ4.2K Vol5mo
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Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
Yes6¢
No94¢
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Ɱ70.8K Vol2y