The same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 10%–97%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply about a 57% chance that Apple will release the iPhone 18 in 2026, but the two venues disagree sharply—Polymarket shows 97% while Kalshi shows 11%—likely due to differences in their user bases or how they define the question.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
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Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.