Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 97% chance — almost certain.
Across venues
· updated 2mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 13%–97%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The two prediction markets collectively imply a 58
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 97% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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