The same question trades on 3 venues — prices range 6%–16%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply a 15% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by August 31, though the play-money market (Manifold) shows a notably lower estimate, possibly due to different participant incentives.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
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Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.