Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
🗂 Part of event: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 16% chance — unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 8mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues — prices range 6%–16%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply a 15% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by August 31, though the play-money market (Manifold) shows a notably lower estimate, possibly due to different participant incentives.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 16% right now.
The market sees only a 16% chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, reflecting a consensus that the current geopolitical disruptions—including US-Iran tensions and a recent tanker seizure—will persist beyond that deadline, despite a slight uptick in odds over the past week.
📊 Base rate: Historical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, such as the 2019 tanker attacks and the 2018-2019 US-Iran tensions, typically lasted several months to over a year, with traffic recovery often taking 6-12 months after the initial incident.
What's driving it
- • A CNBC report on July 24 stated that traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, reinforcing the low odds and suggesting a prolonged disruption (CNBC, Jul 24).
- • Tanker crossings hit their lowest level since May on July 24, as reported by Crypto Briefing, indicating that the current traffic slump is deepening rather than recovering.
- • Iran's seizure of a Greek tanker on July 22 escalated tensions and signaled continued risk to shipping, directly undermining the prospect of a quick return to normal transit (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22).
- • The 7-day odds have risen 6 points in the past week, possibly due to speculation about diplomatic efforts or seasonal shipping patterns, but no headline explicitly supports a near-term recovery catalyst.
The case for YES
- • The 7-day moving average threshold of 60 transit calls is relatively low compared to pre-disruption levels (often above 80), so a modest improvement in security or a temporary diplomatic breakthrough could push traffic above that mark.
- • If the US and Iran engage in direct talks or a de-escalation agreement in late July or August, shipping companies might resume normal routes quickly, as seen in past temporary lulls.
- • The market's 4-point rise in the last 24 hours suggests some traders see a potential for a surprise recovery, possibly tied to unconfirmed diplomatic signals or seasonal demand.
The case for NO
- • Multiple news outlets, including CNBC and EnergyNow.com, report that restoring normal traffic will take 12 months or more, making a return by August 31 highly unlikely within that timeframe.
- • The July 22 tanker seizure by Iran demonstrates active military intervention, which typically deters shipping and requires weeks or months to resolve through negotiations or security guarantees.
- • Traffic levels are at their lowest since May and still declining, with no reported progress on security arrangements or de-escalation, making a rapid rebound to 60 transit calls in just over a month improbable.
What to watch
- • Any new US-Iran diplomatic meeting or announcement of talks in early August would likely increase the odds of a Yes resolution, as it could signal a path to de-escalation.
- • A further tanker seizure or military incident in the Strait before August 31 would push odds lower, reinforcing the No case.
- • IMF Portwatch data releases in late July or early August showing a sustained uptick in transit calls would directly increase the probability of hitting the 60 threshold, raising Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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