The same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Across prediction markets, the average chance of a hantavirus pandemic in 2026 is estimated at 3%, with real-money sites (InsightX and Polymarket) agreeing at 3%, while the play-money site (Manifold) gives a slightly lower 1%, likely due to different user behavior in play-money trading.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
How each venue’s Yes has moved
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Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.