Will Hantavirus become a pandemic in 2026?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
Across venues
· updated 3mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The three prediction markets collectively imply about a 3% chance of a hantavirus pandemic in
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
BNB Up or Down - Daily
The market's 70% odds for BNB rising today are not obviously supported by any of the provided recent headlines, which predominantly cover Airbnb regulatory news and a single crypto-related price drop from five months ago.
Yes ≈ 74% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
The market prices just a 2% chance that Los Angeles saw exactly 81°F on July 25, 2026—a reflection of both the inherent rarity of any specific integer temperature and the context of an unusually hot spring that tilted the distribution upward.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
The contract for LAX on July 25, 2026, has effectively already resolved to No, with odds at 2% reflecting the observed high temperature below 81°F. The earlier heatwave headlines (March–April) do not directly explain this outcome, as the specific day did not meet the threshold.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
This market is effectively resolved: the event date (July 25, 2026) has passed, and the overwhelming 98% No odds indicate that actual temperature readings have already shown the high was not exactly 81°F, with final confirmation likely the only remaining step.
Yes ≈ 2% chance