petal: First Week Album Equivalent Units

What's driving it

• • The steep drop in Yes probability from 72% at 300K to 50% at 350K and then to 21% at 400K shows traders view 350K as the pivotal threshold, with little conviction beyond that.
• • The near-certainty of crossing 200K (97% Yes) and 250K (92% Yes) indicates a strong floor driven by pre-orders and streaming estimates, but also that the market has already priced in that baseline.

What to watch

• • First-day streaming data from Spotify and Apple Music on the album's release day (if reported) would shift the odds up if above 350K, down if below.
• • Midweek sales projections from HITS Daily Double or Billboard, typically released 3–4 days after release, would provide a more precise estimate and likely narrow the range around 350K.