2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

✨ The EU's bid for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is seen as a long shot at 1% odds, with recent headlines highlighting internal controversies and geopolitical tensions that undermine its peacemaking image, rather than any unifying achievement.

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Yes ≈ 11% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a Trump Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, reflecting that no clear peace breakthrough or nomination momentum exists, while ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and domestic controversies further undermine his candidacy.

Yes ≈ 3% chance

✨ 市场极度看低Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue获奖可能，尽管其近期在奥斯陆论坛和阿曼高层会晤中高调亮相，但缺乏标志性突破成果，且诺贝尔奖更倾向授予一次性重大和平成就而非持续调解努力。

Yes ≈ 3% chance