Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?
🗂 Part of event: 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market heavily discounts a Trump Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, reflecting that no clear peace breakthrough or nomination momentum exists, while ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and domestic controversies further undermine his candidacy.
📊 Base rate: Since 1901, only one sitting or former U.S. president (Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Jimmy Carter after office) has won the Nobel Peace Prize within a year of leaving office, making a 3% baseline plausible for a non-incumbent with no major peace deal.
What's driving it
- • The U.S.-Iran conflict appears to be pausing rather than resolving, with operations 'on a hold' and strikes abating (CNN, Jul 26; NYT, Jul 26), which removes a potential diplomatic win for Trump.
- • A federal appeals court rejected Trump's bid to enforce a mail ballot order (Fox News, Jul 25), highlighting ongoing legal and political battles that distract from peace efforts.
- • Trump's public remarks, including a swipe at LeBron James (The Guardian, Jul 25), reinforce a polarizing image inconsistent with the Nobel committee's typical criteria.
- • No headline mentions any Trump-led peace initiative, Nobel nomination, or endorsement from a qualified nominator, leaving the 3% odds without a clear catalyst.
The case for YES
- • If Trump brokers a ceasefire or peace deal in the Iran conflict before the February 2026 Nobel nomination deadline, he could be nominated by a qualified individual (e.g., a member of parliament or professor).
- • The Nobel committee has occasionally awarded peace prizes for conflict de-escalation (e.g., Obama 2009), and Trump could claim credit for any reduction in U.S.-Iran hostilities.
- • A surprise endorsement from a former laureate or a major international figure could shift perception, though no such endorsement is reported.
The case for NO
- • The Nobel Peace Prize typically rewards long-term, verifiable peace efforts, not short-term pauses or unilateral actions; Trump's lack of a sustained peace track record makes a 2026 win unlikely.
- • Ongoing legal challenges and polarizing statements (Fox News, Jul 25; The Guardian, Jul 25) damage his international reputation, reducing the chance of a Nobel nomination.
- • The Iran conflict is spreading to involve Saudi Arabia and Houthis (Al Jazeera, Jul 25), indicating escalation rather than resolution, which undermines any peace claim.
What to watch
- • If the U.S. and Iran announce a formal ceasefire or peace agreement before the Nobel nomination deadline (February 2026), odds would rise significantly.
- • A public nomination of Trump by a Nobel-qualified individual (e.g., a former U.S. president or a member of the Norwegian Nobel Committee) would be a strong positive signal.
- • Any escalation of the Iran war or new domestic legal setbacks (e.g., a conviction) would further depress odds toward zero.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗