2026 Nobel Physics winner?

Yes ≈ 6% chance

✨ Despite winning the prestigious Kavli Prize in Nanoscience in June 2026, Allan MacDonald remains a long shot for the Nobel Physics at 18%, reflecting the Nobel committee's tendency to favor other subfields and the crowded field of contenders.

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 13% chance

✨ Kitaev's odds remain low despite recent experimental progress on Majorana bound states, suggesting the market sees the Nobel committee as likely to wait for more definitive validation or to favor other candidates.

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 19% chance