Will Allan MacDonald win the Nobel Physics?
🗂 Part of event: 2026 Nobel Physics winner? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 18% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 18% right now.
Despite winning the prestigious Kavli Prize in Nanoscience in June 2026, Allan MacDonald remains a long shot for the Nobel Physics at 18%, reflecting the Nobel committee's tendency to favor other subfields and the crowded field of contenders.
📊 Base rate: Historically, about 10-15% of Nobel Physics laureates have worked in condensed matter physics, the subfield of MacDonald's research, suggesting the current odds are not far from the base rate for such candidates.
What's driving it
- • The Kavli Prize win on June 10, 2026 raised his profile but the market still sees him as unlikely, suggesting the award is not seen as a strong predictor of a Nobel in Physics.
- • Recent obituaries for other individuals named Paul MacDonald and Rod MacDonald (July 2026) are unrelated but may cause minor confusion among traders.
- • The June 19, 2026 article about a UT Austin scientist's 1.1-degree twist highlights his influential work on moiré materials, but this has not significantly moved the odds.
The case for YES
- • He won the 2026 Kavli Prize in Nanoscience, a major award that often precedes Nobel recognition.
- • His research on twisted bilayer graphene (the '1.1-degree twist') is considered groundbreaking and has opened a new field in condensed matter physics.
- • He is a prominent figure at a top research university (UT Austin) with a strong record of citations and influence.
The case for NO
- • The Nobel Physics committee has historically favored discoveries in particle physics, cosmology, and quantum optics over condensed matter physics in recent years.
- • The Kavli Prize is in Nanoscience, not Physics, and its winners do not always transition to a Nobel in Physics.
- • There are many other strong candidates in other subfields, and the market's 18% odds reflect a consensus that he is not the frontrunner.
What to watch
- • Clarivate Citation Laureates announcement in September 2026: if included, odds likely rise (up).
- • Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics announcement in September 2026: if he wins, odds would increase significantly (up).
- • Nobel Prize announcement in early October 2026: if he is not a laureate, odds drop to near zero (down).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Allan MacDonald has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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