NASA lands on the moon?
4 markets · 3y
The market sees a near-certain miss by 2027, but a coin-flip by 2030, reflecting deep skepticism about near-term schedules but growing belief that the Artemis program's political and technical hurdles can be cleared within a decade.
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Markets in this event
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2027? — Before 2027
Despite the Artemis II crewed orbital mission launching in April 2026, the timeline for an actual lunar landing before 2027 is extremely tight, and no dedicated landing mission has been publicly scheduled, making a 2026 landing virtually impossible.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Will NASA land a person on the Moon before 2028? — Before 2028
Despite NASA's ongoing Artemis II preparations and a symbolic 2027 deadline, the market sees virtually no chance of a crewed lunar landing before 2028, focusing instead on the unproven lander systems and a timeline that historically requires far more than the remaining months.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will NASA land a person on the Moon by 2028? — Before 2029
Yes ≈ 27% chance
Will NASA land a person on the Moon by 2029? — Before 2030
The market is essentially a coin flip because while Artemis II is finally crewed and moving forward, the critical landing hardware (Starship HLS) remains unproven, and NASA's history suggests major schedule slips for complex first-time missions.
Yes ≈ 47% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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