Will NASA land a person on the Moon by 2029?
🗂 Part of event: NASA lands on the moon? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 47% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 47% right now.
The market is essentially a coin flip because while Artemis II is finally crewed and moving forward, the critical landing hardware (Starship HLS) remains unproven, and NASA's history suggests major schedule slips for complex first-time missions.
📊 Base rate: Major space firsts (e.g., first Space Shuttle flight, first SpaceX crewed launch) have historically experienced 2–5 year delays from initial target dates, making a 2029 landing plausible but far from certain.
What's driving it
- • Artemis II is now in active preparation with crew announced (BBC, Apr 9), boosting confidence that the program is real and progressing.
- • No major delays or technical showstoppers have been reported for Artemis II or Starship HLS recently, keeping the odds stable near 50%.
- • The lack of a confirmed Artemis III landing date or successful uncrewed Starship landing test leaves the final step uncertain.
The case for YES
- • Artemis I was a complete success, proving the SLS and Orion systems work for a lunar trajectory.
- • Artemis II, if it launches and returns safely in 2026, will validate crew operations and give NASA the confidence to proceed quickly to Artemis III.
- • SpaceX is actively developing Starship HLS; if it achieves a successful uncrewed lunar landing by 2028, the path to a crewed landing by 2029 is clear.
The case for NO
- • Artemis II has not yet launched and any delays there could cascade, pushing Artemis III past 2029.
- • Starship HLS requires an orbital refueling capability that has never been demonstrated, creating a high technical risk.
- • Political or budget changes after the 2028 election could defund or redirect the Artemis program, as seen with previous lunar initiatives.
What to watch
- • Artemis II launch (currently NET late 2026): a successful launch and splashdown would boost Yes odds; any delay or anomaly would push odds to No.
- • SpaceX uncrewed Starship lunar landing test: success would significantly raise Yes odds; failure or indefinite delay would lower them.
- • NASA official Artemis III schedule update (e.g., quarterly review): if they push the target date beyond 2029, odds swing to No; if they reaffirm or accelerate, odds swing to Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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