Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
1 markets · 2y
The market sees a 67% chance of Trump being impeached before his term ends, driven largely by the momentum of his second impeachment trial and ongoing investigations, though conviction remains uncertain due to Republican Senate opposition.
What's driving it
- • House Democrats moving forward with a second impeachment after the Capitol riot (Reuters, Jan 13) significantly raised odds by establishing a clear legislative path.
- • The Senate trial, with a 57-43 split on conviction (less than the 67 needed), keeps odds high but not certain, as some Republicans signal openness to censure over conviction (Reuters, Feb 9).
- • Ongoing investigations into Trump's business and election interference (e.g., Georgia phone call) provide alternative grounds if impeachment falters, but no clear catalyst for a new House vote recently.
The bullish case
- • Democrats control the House and could impeach again if new evidence emerges or if Trump engages in further conduct deemed impeachable (e.g., inciting violence).
- • Public pressure from the Capitol attack aftermath and bipartisan support for accountability could sway enough Senate Republicans to reach a 67-vote threshold, especially if key figures like McConnell signal support.
- • Legal risks from state investigations might not directly lead to impeachment, but they increase the political cost for Republicans defending Trump, potentially pushing some to support removal.
The bearish case
- • The Senate requires a two-thirds majority (67 votes) for conviction, and only 6 Republican senators voted to convict in the second trial, leaving a large gap to bridge.
- • Trump's term ends in January 2025, leaving limited time; no new impeachment articles have been introduced since the second trial, and Democratic leadership may focus on other priorities.
- • A conviction faces procedural hurdles, as some legal experts argue impeachment of a former president is unconstitutional, a view that could discourage new attempts.
What to watch
- • Publication of the January 6 committee final report (expected late 2022) could reveal new evidence, increasing yes odds if it implicates Trump directly.
- • Upcoming court rulings on Trump's tax returns or Georgia election interference case (no fixed date, but mid-2023) could provide fresh impeachable offenses, pushing yes up.
- • Midterm elections in November 2022: if Democrats lose the House, new impeachment becomes nearly impossible (no odds drop); if they maintain control, yes odds could rise.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Markets in this event
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
The 67% impeachment odds are essentially a bet on Democrats flipping the House in the November 2026 midterms, as the market expects a low-approval Trump to be impeached by a new Democratic majority rather than by the current Republican-controlled chamber.
Yes ≈ 67% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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