Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 67% chance — likely.
Across venues
· updated 1mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 19%–67%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The two prediction markets collectively imply about a 45% chance of impeachment, but they disagree sharply: Polymarket gives 67% while Kalshi gives 19%, likely due to differences in their user bases or liquidity.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 67% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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Yes ≈ 64% chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
128 outcomes