Israel closes its airspace by...?
18 markets · Closed
✨ Ask about this eventMarkets in this event
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
The market has moved to 0% probability for a major Israeli airspace closure by July 15, 2026, reflecting that the deadline has already passed with no such event occurring; the real story is the series of regional escalations—Iranian missile fire, Kuwaiti and Iranian airspace closures, and Israeli warnings of spillover—that have not triggered a blanket Israeli civilian aviation shutdown, despite heightened tensions.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
The odds have collapsed sharply because recent official Israeli reassurances that flights won't be canceled directly contradict the market's definition of a 'major closure,' and the headlines about Iranian damage and a potential blockade haven't translated into concrete steps to close the entire airspace.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Yes ≈ 27% chance
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
The market resolved to No because the July 24 deadline passed without a major closure of Israeli airspace, despite recent escalations with Iran and regional tensions.
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…