Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
🗂 Part of event: Israel closes its airspace by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
The odds have collapsed sharply because recent official Israeli reassurances that flights won't be canceled directly contradict the market's definition of a 'major closure,' and the headlines about Iranian damage and a potential blockade haven't translated into concrete steps to close the entire airspace.
What's driving it
- • The Israel National News report (Jul 22) of the Airports Authority explicitly promising flights won't be canceled is the most direct counterevidence to the 'major closure' definition, likely causing the 17-point drop in the last 24 hours.
- • The Crypto Briefing report (Jul 23) describing Iranian damage to Israel's refineries and radar made a closure 'possible,' but this speculative link did not outweigh the official denial, leading to continued selling on the Yes side.
- • The 7-day -16 point decline also reflects the lack of any follow-through after the Jul 6 Ynetnews report that Ben Gurion Airport remained open despite Iranian missile fire, establishing a pattern of resilience.
The case for YES
- • If Iran's missile damage (Crypto Briefing, Jul 23) is worse than initially reported and compromises air traffic control infrastructure, the Israeli Airports Authority's Jul 22 promise could be overridden by safety imperatives.
- • A sudden escalation of Trump's Iran blockade (Crypto Briefing, Jul 23) could force a military closure of Israeli airspace to prevent civilian casualties, mimicking the precedent of Kuwait's closure after U.S. strikes (CNBC, Jun 10).
- • Qualifying wording: a closure of 'a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace' could be triggered by a single major event near Ben Gurion, even if the airport itself stays open.
The case for NO
- • The Israeli Airports Authority directly promised flights won't be canceled (Israel National News, Jul 22), and such an official announcement carries substantial credibility and is a specific denial of the market condition.
- • The market has already demonstrated resilience: during actual Iranian missile fire on Jul 6, Ben Gurion Airport remained open (Ynetnews), showing that even direct attacks do not trigger the defined 'major closure.'
- • With only 6 days left until the July 31 deadline, the odds at 10% imply a very high threshold for a swift, unannounced, and broad shutdown, which becomes increasingly unlikely without new, dramatic events.
What to watch
- • Any official statement from Israeli aviation authorities or the military contradicting the July 22 promise (e.g., announcing temporary cancellations) would spike Yes probability.
- • A new, confirmed Iranian missile or drone attack that directly hits Ben Gurion Airport's runways or control tower before July 31 would sharply increase Yes odds.
- • Publication of a formal NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) closing Israeli airspace by the Israel Airports Authority or the military would be the clearest catalyst and would send the market to near 100% Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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