Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The contract for July 25 has already resolved, with 2% Yes reflecting near-certainty that the daily high remained below 81°F, likely due to a classic June gloom pattern persisting into late July despite a historic spring heat wave.
📊 Base rate: Historically, about 60-70% of July days in downtown Los Angeles reach at least 81°F (1981-2010 NOAA normals), making the current 2% an extreme deviation from climatology.
What's driving it
- • The event date (July 25, 2026) has passed; odds are driven by actual reported temperatures, not forecasts.
- • Ocean heat records off California (Los Angeles Times, Apr 16) may enhance marine layer cloud cover, keeping coastal highs cooler than normal.
- • The March heat wave (The Guardian, Mar 19) is irrelevant to summer patterns, but the extreme early heat does not alter typical July marine influence.
The case for YES
- • A brief clearing or shift in wind could push a coastal monitoring station just above 81°F, a common July occurrence under weak marine influence.
- • The official weather station (e.g., downtown LA) sometimes records higher temperatures than coastal airports, potentially reaching the threshold.
The case for NO
- • Persistent marine layer, typical in July, often keeps the Los Angeles basin below 80°F, especially near the coast.
- • National Weather Service short-term forecasts for July 25 likely called for highs in the upper 70s, consistent with the observed low odds.
- • The strong El Niño-like ocean warming (LA Times, Apr 16) may actually deepen the marine layer, suppressing temperatures further.
What to watch
- • July 26, 2026 — Official NWS daily summary release: if high < 81°F, No will go to 100%; if ≥81°F, Yes will spike sharply.
- • No other near-term events; the contract is essentially settled awaiting confirmation.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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