Los Angeles Daily Temperature High — contract UHLAX_072526_81
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market assigns a near-zero (2%) probability to Los Angeles hitting exactly 81°F on July 26, 2026, reflecting the inherent rarity of any specific temperature value rather than any extreme weather event.
📊 Base rate: Historical data for Los Angeles in late July shows the daily high temperature typically falls between 70°F and 95°F, making the probability of any given integer value (like 81°F) around 3–5%.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently — the odds are stable at 2% Yes, reflecting the low baseline probability of an exact temperature rather than any news-driven move.
The case for YES
- • If a persistent marine layer keeps temperatures moderate and the high settles exactly at 81°F, the contract would resolve Yes.
- • A strong onshore flow from the Pacific could suppress temperatures below the July average, increasing the chance of a specific mild value like 81°F.
The case for NO
- • The continuous nature of temperature measurement makes an exact hit on any integer degree highly improbable, with the base rate already below 5%.
- • Most July days in Los Angeles see highs either above 81°F (heat) or below 81°F (cooler marine influence), so the exact value is a rare middle ground.
What to watch
- • Short-term weather forecasts issued 1–3 days before July 26, 2026, will significantly shift the odds; a forecast calling for a high near 81°F would push Yes up, while a forecast far from 81°F would push No even higher.
- • The observed high on July 25, 2026, could provide a reference point if the weather pattern is stable, potentially moving the market slightly toward the expectation for the next day.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
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The contract for July 25 has already resolved, with 2% Yes reflecting near-certainty that the daily high remained below 81°F, likely due to a classic June gloom pattern persisting into late July despite a historic spring heat wave.
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