Number of refineries controlled by Petrobras at the end of Lula's term?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 11 or more at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
The field is virtually a foregone conclusion, with the 98% probability on '11 or more' refineries reflecting the market's belief that Lula's government will reverse Bolsonaro-era divestitures, the most recent catalyst being Petrobras' early talks to reacquire the Mataripe refinery (Egypt Oil & Gas, Apr 2026).
What's driving it
- • Lula's government has actively pursued reacquiring refineries, as seen in the early talks with Mubadala for Mataripe (Egypt Oil & Gas, Apr 2026).
- • A 2024 Reuters report indicated Petrobras aimed to settle a refinery deal structure with Mubadala by end-June, signaling ongoing negotiation (Reuters, Feb 2024).
- • The scrapping of taxes on diesel and imposition of oil export levy (Gulf Times, Mar 2026) may affect Petrobras' financial ability to acquire, but the market apparently sees it as net positive for refinery count.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Lula has a history of intervening in Petrobras to expand state control, as noted by The Economist in 2024 (Feb 2024).
- • The ongoing talks to reacquire Mataripe directly add at least one refinery to the count, pushing toward the 11+ threshold.
- • The market prices in a high probability of success because the government's political will is strong and the negotiation timeline aligns with the end of Lula's term.
Why it's still open
- • A major strike by oil workers (World Socialist Web Site, Dec 2025) could disrupt operations and slow acquisition plans.
- • If the Mubadala deal falls through or faces regulatory hurdles, the count could stay below 10.
- • Fiscal constraints from the diesel tax cut and export levy might limit Petrobras' ability to purchase multiple refineries.
What to watch
- • A definitive announcement of the Mataripe reacquisition (likely direction: up).
- • Any new refinery acquisition or divestment policy change from the government (likely direction: up).
- • A major labor strike or political crisis that undermines Lula's reform agenda (likely direction: down).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by Futuur per each question's rules. Futuur runs both play- and real-money sides — we show the real-money (crypto) price.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Futuur ↗Related markets
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance