Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 26% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 26% right now.
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
📊 Base rate: Polygenic embryo screening (PGT-P) for complex traits has been used in only a few thousand cases globally as of 2025, so reaching 100,000 by 2030 would require a roughly 100-fold increase in adoption over five years, a pace rarely seen in medical technology outside of blockbuster drugs.
What's driving it
- • The World IVF Day articles (Jul 2026) highlight that IVF is now seen as a tool for family planning beyond infertility, which could expand the pool of potential users of advanced embryo selection (ETV Bharat, Metropolis Healthcare).
- • Coverage of startups aiming to create genetically modified babies (Le Monde.fr, May 2026) and Silicon Valley's interest in 'building the perfect baby' (Fortune, Nov 2025) signal that venture capital and tech culture are pushing the frontier, potentially accelerating adoption.
- • Nucleus Genomics CEO's promotion of 'genetic optimization' tools (CBS News, Dec 2025) and the New York Times opinion on pre-conception parenting trends (Aug 2025) indicate growing mainstream media attention, which could normalize the practice and drive demand.
The case for YES
- • If the current trajectory of IVF growth continues and a significant fraction of the ~3 million annual IVF cycles globally adopt advanced embryo selection (e.g., for polygenic risk scores or trait selection), 100,000 conceptions by 2030 is achievable, especially as costs drop and awareness rises.
- • The involvement of well-funded startups and Silicon Valley figures (Fortune, Nov 2025) could lead to rapid commercialization and direct-to-consumer marketing, similar to how 23andMe popularized genetic testing, potentially pushing adoption past the threshold.
- • Regulatory approval in a large market like the US or EU for specific medical uses (e.g., reducing risk of common diseases) could open the floodgates, as seen with non-invasive prenatal testing which went from niche to standard in under a decade.
The case for NO
- • The ethical and regulatory hurdles remain high: most countries ban or heavily restrict embryo selection for non-medical traits, and even medical uses like polygenic risk scoring face scrutiny from professional societies and regulators, limiting scalability.
- • The technology is still unproven at scale: polygenic embryo selection has limited predictive power for complex traits, and concerns about false positives, equity, and eugenics could deter widespread adoption among both clinicians and patients.
- • The 100,000 threshold is very high: even if advanced embryo selection becomes available in a few leading clinics, reaching that number would require adoption in tens of thousands of IVF cycles per year globally, which is unlikely without a major shift in clinical practice and public acceptance by 2030.
What to watch
- • Any major regulatory decision (e.g., FDA guidance or UK HFEA approval) on polygenic embryo screening for disease risk, likely in 2027-2028, would move odds up if permissive, down if restrictive.
- • Publication of large-scale clinical outcomes (e.g., from a registry or trial) showing safety and efficacy of advanced embryo selection, expected in 2027-2028, could boost odds if positive, or suppress them if results are mixed or negative.
- • A high-profile endorsement or adoption by a major fertility clinic chain or a celebrity announcement of using the technology, which could occur at any time, would likely increase odds by normalizing the practice.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
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