Companies to go public in 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: SpaceX at about a 91% chance — very likely.
The field is moderately concentrated with two strong leaders—SpaceX and Anthropic—but a long tail of eight candidates above 5% makes it less a binary race than a bet on whether the two favorites both IPO or only one. The biggest recent shift is the emergence of congressional insider trading reports around SpaceX (CNBC, Jul 3), which may have boosted confidence that the IPO is real and imminent.
What's driving it
- • SpaceX surged to 91% after a CNBC report on July 3 revealed the first known congressional stock purchases in SpaceX ahead of a record IPO, signaling strong political and insider interest in the listing.
- • Anthropic's 85% likely reflects the general AI investment frenzy, though no recent headline directly cites it; the closest is the broader tech IPO pipeline implied by IQM's going public (Quantum Insider, Jul 3) despite its own uncertainty (TechCrunch, Jul 2).
- • Kraken's 34% may be buoyed by the rising corporate Bitcoin holdings milestone (Coinpedia, Jul 3), as crypto-friendly exchanges benefit from institutional adoption, but no specific Kraken headline explains the move.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Spacex's 91% odds are driven by concrete signals of regulatory and political comfort (CNBC congressional stock buys) and its status as the most anticipated tech IPO of the decade, with a record valuation likely.
- • Anthropic's 85% is supported by its position as a leading AI safety company with strong venture backing, making it a prime candidate for a 2026 IPO in a frothy AI market.
- • The two front-runners together account for 176% probability share, implying the market assigns a high chance at least one goes public, but not necessarily both—consistent with the field still being open.
Why it's still open
- • Kraken at 34% could overtake if crypto regulation clarifies or if it announces a direct listing; its gap to 85% is large but bridged by a single catalyst like a formal S-1 filing.
- • OpenAI at 21% and Stripe at 15% are credible threats—OpenAI could leapfrog if it resolves governance issues (not covered in headlines), while Stripe might IPO after years of speculation, but neither has recent news pushing their odds.
- • The presence of eight candidates above 5% means new entrants or late movers (e.g., Revolut at 11% or Canva at 12%) could surge if they announce confidential filings, keeping the race fluid despite the two leaders.
What to watch
- • SpaceX's actual S-1 filing or IPO date announcement would lock in its lead and potentially reduce the field; currently expected before year-end but no exact date.
- • A formal SEC filing by Anthropic for an IPO would confirm its odds and pull probability from other AI candidates like OpenAI.
- • Any major regulatory shift in crypto—such as a US federal law clarifying exchange classification—could boost Kraken, Coinbase-related candidates, or even open a path for a crypto-native IPO not currently in the top 8.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by Futuur per each question's rules. Futuur runs both play- and real-money sides — we show the real-money (crypto) price.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Futuur ↗Related markets
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